Post by pihk on Feb 28, 2014 14:37:52 GMT
Range has reach the point that the share price has little to do with its assets and more to do with sentiment, which is in the toilet, and all stand back awaiting the next dilution. The share price has priced in total failure to sell Texas, continued dilution, failure to increase production and frankly a total disregard for shareholder value by management (don't talk to me about new management, the name has changed but we have another unelected figurehead recruited by the last (still employed) talking head - same shit different name in my book).
However at 5bln shares and an SP of 1p with cash of $7mln USD and debt of $6mln USD you get an EV of $81mln USD. That's 20% under the EV at Q1 Sep 2013 and lower than any valuation since Q3 Jun 2010. Even if production doesn't move a jote and reserves don't increase the valuations we are directly comparable with industry peers. With production at 1,200 bopd we are fundamentally cheap at 5bln shares and reserves where they are. Instead we have an oil man at the top, St Mary's in the wings, Niko farm-in complete, some rigs in various states of repair and some even drilling. Reserve upgrades to come and glory... apparently.
We aren't at 5bln, we are at 3.5bln.
I struggle daily to stand back and look at the broader picture. I have managed to invest successfully in roller coaster stocks before without becoming to engaged but Range has at times defeated me and I share everyone's bitterness. I even find myself defending the company's performance to "outsiders", I have become the classic retail investor basket case.
I will give it until the next quarterly report to hear what the "new" management have to say.
In my book they are aligned with me. CEO will have 30mln options at a 2p strike price and will need the bopd at 2,500 and stock at 4p for him to make 600k GBP. I am prepared to bet that he will hit those targets. 600k is a lot to us but not a lot to an executive, in fact I bet he believe he fundamentally deserves it. Good, my average is now only a little above his strike price and his greed will bring this home for me. Forget +6-24p crap that is pushed day in and day out.
Look at the numbers.
Enough from me.
Good night.
PiHK
However at 5bln shares and an SP of 1p with cash of $7mln USD and debt of $6mln USD you get an EV of $81mln USD. That's 20% under the EV at Q1 Sep 2013 and lower than any valuation since Q3 Jun 2010. Even if production doesn't move a jote and reserves don't increase the valuations we are directly comparable with industry peers. With production at 1,200 bopd we are fundamentally cheap at 5bln shares and reserves where they are. Instead we have an oil man at the top, St Mary's in the wings, Niko farm-in complete, some rigs in various states of repair and some even drilling. Reserve upgrades to come and glory... apparently.
We aren't at 5bln, we are at 3.5bln.
I struggle daily to stand back and look at the broader picture. I have managed to invest successfully in roller coaster stocks before without becoming to engaged but Range has at times defeated me and I share everyone's bitterness. I even find myself defending the company's performance to "outsiders", I have become the classic retail investor basket case.
I will give it until the next quarterly report to hear what the "new" management have to say.
In my book they are aligned with me. CEO will have 30mln options at a 2p strike price and will need the bopd at 2,500 and stock at 4p for him to make 600k GBP. I am prepared to bet that he will hit those targets. 600k is a lot to us but not a lot to an executive, in fact I bet he believe he fundamentally deserves it. Good, my average is now only a little above his strike price and his greed will bring this home for me. Forget +6-24p crap that is pushed day in and day out.
Look at the numbers.
Enough from me.
Good night.
PiHK
